Track record · updated on each resolution date
Every forecast we publish, marked right or wrong.
A forecast that is never scored is marketing, not intelligence. Each one below has a date, a confidence level and a public way to check it. When its date passes, we record the outcome here, whether or not it flatters us.
6
Forecasts published
0
Resolved so far
—
Hit rate (shown once forecasts resolve)
In vivo CAR-T — published 17 September 2026
Source: in vivo CAR-T signal report.
| # | Forecast | Resolves by | Confidence | How to check | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | At least two further FDA IND clearances for in vivo CAR-T assets whose main evidence is a non-US investigator-initiated trial | 2027-03-31 | 70% | Sponsor press releases | Open |
| F2 | At least one in vivo CAR-T programme placed on FDA clinical hold, or suspended for safety | 2027-12-31 | 55% | ClinicalTrials.gov status changes; company disclosures | Open |
| F3 | No in vivo CAR-T therapy receives FDA marketing approval | 2028-12-31 | 85% | FDA approvals list | Open |
| F4 | The next three large-cap entries into the field are licensing deals or collaborations, not acquisitions | 2027-12-31 | 60% | Deal announcements | Open |
| F5 | A randomised or controlled in vivo CAR-T trial in an autoimmune indication begins enrolling | 2027-12-31 | 50% | Registry record with a control arm | Open |
| F6 | Cumulative disclosed in vivo cell-therapy deal value exceeds $18bn | 2027-12-31 | 45% | Sum of announced deals, same basis as the report | Open |
Scoring rules
A forecast is marked Right or Wrong on its resolution date, using the check named in its row. If the public record is ambiguous, it is marked Unresolved with a one-line reason. Forecasts are never edited after publication.